A little over a week on from a profound psychological deflation, and with the crushing implications of defeat to Italy in the last game of UEFA Euro 2020 sinking in, the prevailing post-Fleet Street media narrative – that football was, unstoppably and inevitably, ‘coming home’ – has been swiftly supplanted with the sentiment that England have an exciting young team which can yet go on to bigger and better things, and within just eighteen months to boot.
This position has genuine statistical merit to it. After finishing fourth at the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia and third in the inaugural UEFA Nations League (2018-19), England have been elevated to runners-up position at the European Championships, their best-ever showing in that competition; two semi-finals and a final in four years represents unparalleled consistency for one of world football’s more bipolar teams. Moreover, in Gareth Southgate they possess a pragmatic and diligent manager who has realised that for now, any chance of English success must be based upon a risk-averse philosophy with the elimination of basic errors at its core.
After some contemplation, however, we at Mediolana would rate England’s chances of ultimate success at the 2022 FIFA World Cup as merely moderate. The following factors in particular may prove to be insurmountable obstacles:
- No place like HA9. UEFA’s hosting arrangements for Euro 2020 have come in for sustained criticism both before and after the event, but the paradox about the pan-Europe configuration is that it only served to entrench home advantage: all four semi-finalists were countries which played their opening three matches in front of domestic crowds. For England, UEFA Euro 2020 was a Wembley tournament in all but name, with six out of seven (85.7%) Three Lions’ contests held at their national stadium; this will assuredly not be the case in the deserts of Doha.
- Irreconcilable differences. Under Southgate, England have undertaken concerted and somewhat successful efforts to attract dual nationals to their ranks; accordingly, the team is finally beginning to resemble the nation’s urban talent pool (with the glaring exceptions of Asian- and continental European-origin players). However, it has quickly become obvious that this new and more rational recruitment approach is completely at odds with the political leanings of England’s hardcore following – a faction perhaps best described as ‘anti-urban’ – who primitively vilify and abuse ethnic minority players even in success.
- Lies, damn lies. The naked statistical reading of England’s recent tournament performances recited above disguises a pattern of outstanding good fortune that made success far more likely than in other eras: amazingly benign draws, from qualification to knock-out stages; the consistent non-availability of their opponents’ best players (Youssef Msakni, James Rodríguez, Zlatan Ibrahimović, Christian Eriksen, etc.); benefitting from the kind of refereeing errors that VAR was designed to eliminate, and so on. This type of luck cannot last forever; Southgate objectively acknowledged in a post-final pitch-side television interview that an enormous – possibly historic – opportunity had been missed.
Mediolana 